Republicans picked up two gubernatorial seats in New Jersey and Virginia. The GOP and the beltway punditry are heralding this as a “rebuke on President Obama” (though some are looking at Mayor Bloomberg’s surprisingly close re-election in NYC as evidence of an anti-incumbent mood), but is there much evidence to back up that assertion? Not really. Forgetting that two statewide elections do not a national tide make, polling from last night showed majorities in those states approving of President Obama’s job performance and saying that their vote in these elections was neither a vote of confidence or a rebuke towards the president (but no doubt conservative Democrats in Congress will get scared by these results anyway). Gov. Corzine and Creigh Deeds weren’t exactly great candidate, and in Virginia, it was actually the failure of Deeds to mobilize the Obama base (younger and non-white voters) that lead to his large tumble over the past few months. Moreover, Virginia kept its tradition of voting for a governor not of the same party as the president (Democrats won the last two times). Speaking of tradition, what might be good news here for the GOP is that in an election without President Obama on the ballot, a largely traditional (older, whiter) base showed up to vote. That doesn’t bode well for the 2010 midterms which are base elections like these. The Republicans are energized for wins (as Democrats were in 2006) and  the Democrats, well, they aren’t right now. That’s going to need to change by next year or they will face some serious losses.

The GOP have some warning signs as well though. Democrats won the NY-23 special election (which began when President Obama chose the Republican Congressman there as Army Secretary), which has been held by Republicans for more than a century. This time, there didn’t even end up being a Republican candidate by the time of voting since support (including from Sarah Palin) for a more conservative, third party candidate forced her out (she then went and endorsed the Democrat). This shows the strangehold that the conservative base has on the Republican Party. Any kind of moderation is going to be met with crazy primary challengers, giving an advantage to Democrats. The GOP is going to need to resolve their ideological civil war in order to make the kind of comeback they want next year.

Democrats also kept CA-10 in their hands, as Rep. Ellen Tauscher had left to be Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs. Before her election, this district had also been heavily Republican.

Perhaps the most disappointing news of the night is that Maine voters rejected the same-sex marriage law passed earlier this year by the legislature. It was close to the end, but the opposition prevailed with 53 percent of the vote.

Texas also had 11 constutitional amendments on the ballot, including one support here by the administration of UNT to create a university research fund looking to put us towards tier-one status.

Lastly, a Colorado ski town voted to legalize pot.