FIFA drew the groups for next year’s World Cup today, and the United States caught a stroke of luck in avoiding not only a “group of death” but also in getting matches against two of the weaker opponents in the field. The United States will open against England on June 12th, face Slovenia on June 18th, and finish against Algeria on June 23rd. In my humble opinion England is one of the seeded teams most vulnerable to getting picked off by a decent side, Slovenia qualified only thanks to a playoff win against Russia, and Algeria is regarded as the weakest of the five African teams to qualify (other than S. Africa, the host.) So the likely result is a win against Algeria, a win against Slovenia, and a loss against England. But it’s not outside the realm of reason to imagine the U.S. getting a draw or a win against England. Of course, neither is it outside the range of possibility for the U.S. to draw or lose against either Algeria or Slovenia given some of their past World Cup performances. But I remain optimistic that this team, which stunned the world in their Confederations Cup performance this past summer, can do well in this group and make it out of the first round and into the knockout stage (where they might even face a re-match against Germany out of Group D.) The United States must perform of course, and this is a team capable of wild inconsistency. But overall this is an excellent result for the United States, and bodes well for a most pleasurable World Cup appearance next summer.

UPDATE: Grant Wahl, with more on the USA’s good fortune.

UPDATE II: An article from the NY Times, and Nate Silver, whose new rankings system gives the United States a 19% to win the group, but a 48% of advancing.