Less than three months to go…

House – Charlie Cook still thinks the House is very much in play:

The Cook Political Report last week upped its projection from a 30-40-seat net gain for Republicans to a 32-42-seat net gain, with our model showing +34 seats for the GOP. This count is more heavily weighted toward individual race dynamics, but my gut feeling — which, in years like this one, factors in national mood, relative intensity and enthusiasm between the parties and how independents seem to be breaking — is suggesting somewhat bigger numbers.

The wave is still the wave, and it still looks pretty strong and unabated.

The polls aren’t looking good for Dems, though few believe conditions it will be like 1994 (maybe like 2006). Still, I agree with Cook that this will turn only one of two ways: either it will be an average midterm with average net losses for the president’s party or it’ll be a wave with people voting based on their anger and discontent with the state of the economy.

Senate – Tea party crazy Ken Buck won the GOP’s Senate primary in Colorado last night, meaning that Sen. Michael Bennet probably has a better chance of winning now, just like Sharron Angle’s disastrous candidacy in Nevada has brought Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid back from the dead. As for the rest of the most competetive races, Republicans continue to look really good to takeover 4 seats – North Dakota, Delaware, Arkansas and Indiana. Pennsylvania and Illinois remain 50-50, Gov. Crist continues to lead in his independent bid in Florida, and Lee Fisher is making Ohio the Democrats biggest takeover oppurtunity. See First Read’s ratings for a full list. Basically, the remaining months will determine whether the Democrats fend off a lot of the challenges or the Republicans put chamber control in play.

Gubernatorial – Republicans nominated a weak candidate for Colorado governor yesterday and former Rep. Tom Tancredo has announced an independent run, giving Democrats a good shot at retention. Connecticut looked like a lock for Democratic takeover with either Lamont or Malloy (who won). And over in Georgia, former Gov. Roy Barnes is putting the state in play as Republicans are in disarray over their candidates. The Line has the most recent roundup of the remaining races. There hasn’t been any recent polling here in Texas, but Bill White continues to run a solid campaign. Will it be enough to topple Perry? Only time can tell.