Tonight, several states held the final primaries of the season that might determine outcomes on Election Day. The biggest news of the night came in the form of another tea party upset, this time in Delaware. Crazy anti-masturbation candidate Christine O’Donnell beat long-serving Rep. Mike Castle, once thought as a shoo-in for the nomination and unbeateable in the general election. As a consequence, Democrats now go from having almost no chance to retaining the seat to having a very good chance in this blue state.

Democratic candidate Chris Coons breathes easier tonight, as do Democrats in general as it has become even more unlikely (a 15% chance according to Nate Silver) that Republicans can win a majority in the Senate this fall.

Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek won the Senate primary in Florida last night. While he is clearly the better Democratic candidate, the downside is that means that he and Gov. Crist – who is running as an Independent – will now be fighting for the same votes, possibly giving Republican Marco Rubio a path to victory. Whomever wins this seat may decide who has control of the Senate next year. On the gubernatorial side, Republicans wisely chose Medicare fraudster Rick Scott who will face Democrat Alex Sink, the state’s chief financial officer.

Over in Arizona, incumbents Sen. John McCain and Gov. Jan Brewer won their primaries. McCain faced former Rep. J.D. Hayworth, who is even crazier than McCain these days, but strangely, lost. Republicans also nominated former Vice President Dan Quayle’s son, Ben Quayle, to an open congressional seat in Arizona. Probably because he said President Obama is the worst president ever, or something.

Lastly, in Alaska, the Tea Party looks to have claimed another victim in their ideological purity war. While we are still awaiting some absentee ballot results, Sen. Lisa Murkowski was likely defeated by some guy named Joe Miller (no really, he’s basically just some guy with no experience or accomplishments to his name). So some incumbents won and one lost. How will the media make an overly simplistic narrative out of this?

Oh.

There’s just a little under 5 months until the general election, and while people ain’t happy with Democrats, they still aren’t ready to ride the GOP bandwagon just yet. Here’s the skinny:

House Races – The current makeup of the House of Representatives is 255 Democrats and 178 Republicans (two vacancies exist that won’t be filled until November, one in a solid Republican district in Indiana and one in a competitive district in New York). This means Republicans must have a net gain of 39 seats to a win a majority (most estimates put their expected gain at around 30 seats give-or-take at this moment in time). However, there are three seats that Democrats are actually favored to win back. The at-large seat in Delaware Rep. Mike Castle is leaving to run for Senate and the Louisana and Hawaii seats won by Reps. Joseph Cao and Charles Djou in solid Democratic districts under special circumstances are great pickup oppurtunities for Democrats in what will generally be a good night for Republican candidates. While it’s only three seats, every seat won is a seat that could deny Rep. John Boehner the Speaker’s gavel.

Senate Races – There’s been good news and bad news on the Senate front, but overall the picture is looking better. First, the bad news. Last night, Sen. Blanche Lincoln managed to narrowly fend off a primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. While the seat is endangered no matter what, Halter was the stronger general election candidate according to polls. Also, the entrance of Dino Rossi into the race against Democratic Sen.Patty Murray of Washington state has made that race much closer than it should have been.

Now for the good news. Rep. Joe Sestak is now leading in the polls against Republican Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania. Sen. Harry Reid has also improved considerably in the polls and the strongest Republican challenger Sue Lowden was defeated in last night’s Republican primary by Sharon Angle, the tea party favorite. Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal seems to have weathered the storm of his “misstatement” about serving in Vietnam rather well, as Linda McMahon (yes, that Linda McMahon) is still well behind. Meanwhile, Rep. Mark Kirk, a Republican running for Senate in Illinois, is currently admist a similiar military service controversy, giving State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias a break (the race remains a tossup). Still, Republicans look to surely gain at least North Dakota, Indiana, Delaware, and probably Arkansas at this point.

So far I’ve just talked about Senate seats Democrats are defending, but there are a few pickup oppurtunities. Rand Paul’s insanity has made Kentucky an unexpectedly competitive race, with Attorney General Jack Conway trailing by just a few points. Democrat Lee Fisher and Republican Rob Portman’s race in Ohio is a pure tosssup. Democrats also have potential pickups in New Hampshire, Missouri, North Carolina, and potentially Arizona if J.D. Hayworth defeats Sen. John McCain in the Republican primary.

Overall, Republicans need 10 seats to gain a majority in the Senate and that doesn’t look at all likely at this point.

Gubernatorial Races – Here’s where things look pretty good for Republicans right now. Wyoming, Kansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Iowa are looking like pretty solid pickups and they are favored in Michigan and Pennsylvania. The Democrats’ most likely pickup is in Hawaii where the Republican governor is term-limited, but there’s good oppurtunities in Minnesota, Connecticut, Vermont, and California. I admit to following these races less than the Senate ones (except for the governor’s race in Texas, of course, where our friends at BOR have put together an average of polls showing Bill White typically 7 points down from Gov. Rick Perry, currently), but they are important. Whichever party controls the most governorships and state legislatures (let me also take this oppurtunity to promote State Rep candidate Loretta Haldewang, probably our most likely pickup oppurtunity this year) after November will have the biggest say in redrawing Congressional maps based on the 2010 census numbers, and thus, will determine who controls the House after the 2012 elections.