Joe’s Weather Blog: A close call for the rain to come (MON-11/22) | FOX 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV
Our weather hasn’t been too bad lately although we see a lot of wind around these parts as we continue to move different air masses around the area. Each time an area of high enough pressure moves… and the corresponding air mass is colder… the winds increase. In contrast, these same highs move away and allow another front to set in. This increases the southerly and southwesterly wind component… and that is to come for tomorrow until Wednesday afternoon.
More wind… and more temperature changes. It is not uncommon for us to have a harder time getting humidity during this time of year. We’re averaging around 2 ″ in November and IF we miss Wednesday night… the only good rain we got on the 10th will give us, it seems.
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Today: More sun in the afternoon but a fairly cloudy morning. Summits in the upper 40s
Tonight: Fair and seasonal with minimums of around 32 °
Tomorrow: Windy and warmer turn with highs approaching 65 °. Windy in the afternoon, particularly with gusts to 30 MPH continuing into the night also with mild readings overnight
Wednesday: Clouds growing and warm… peaks again in the mid-60s.
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Only a few blogs this week… so I’ll be leaving for the holidays and until Wednesday next week… so no blogging from Thursday to next Wednesday. Maybe I’ll finally bring you some random winter thoughts on Wednesday’s blog.
So far this month… we’re still a little ahead of the average for humidity. While we only had a trace of snow… we had about 1.5+ ”of rain… it was mostly 10th November has an average of about 2 ″ humidity, so the dry stretches are not too unusual.
These strong areas of high pressure that build up in the plains push moisture all the way to and sometimes off the Gulf Coast. This morning, for example, the best dew points are well over there.
All this humidity takes a long time to come back north… Do you see the dew points of nearly 70 ° in the Gulf of Mexico? It is the richest humidity.
As an area of higher pressure recedes tonight… the winds will turn more and more southerly tomorrow and increase in strength. Remember that the air in and around the high pressure blows out… and clockwise. So what is also our south and our southwest will be drawn north over time. So tomorrow afternoon the dew points start to increase.
then about the same time Wednesday thanks to another southerly windy day… dew points approaching 50 ° and maybe further south and southeast of KC. Areas further north and west of KC not so much.
Add a front that will move to the area later Wednesday …
and there is a recipe for rain BUT….
The front will pass through KC before the rain has time to gather… we are just at the northern edge of this…
Here is a close-up …
Now the GFS …
The end result is that a little rain is possible on parts of the metro on Wednesday evening. The odds favor the higher chances of rain on the south and east side of the metro in central and southern MO. We’ll have to watch this for any adjustments… since we’re on the borderline locally.
IF the front slows down for a few hours and allows a pinch of moisture to seep north… then we might see rain seep a little further north. Whatever we get, it won’t be too much… probably less than 1/10 or so. You can see areas near the lakes and to the south receiving more rain.
There will also be another change in air mass… mild weather Tuesday and Wednesday…
In colder weather for about 48 hours from Thursday to Friday morning
Already you can see the warmer air coming back to the western plains and that warmer weather will move over us ahead of the weekend with 50s and 60s possible again until Saturday.
A few other random things… Denver… still waiting for their first snowfall… and now they’re setting records every day as usual they’ve had measurable snowfall. The average date of their first measurable snowfall is actually October 19 … the previous longest wait time was November 21. So here we are on the 22nd and nothing.
So just for fun… let’s see how we’ve fared in the snow for the years they’ve waited so long.
1931-32: 10.5 (N / A)
2016-17: 4.9 (NL)
1894-95: 13.7 (N / A)
2010-11: 36.9 (NL)
1988-89: 6.9 (LN)
1902-03: 25.3 ″ (N / A)
2008-09: 14.6 (NL)
1964-65: 29.8 ″ (LN)
1944-45: 15.3 (N / A)
So 4 years above the average (18.2) at KC… with 6 years below the average… nothing too conclusive. I also added in the years La Nina (LN). The data is reliable from 1950… so in previous years I put a (N / A) in the category. This is however interesting because we are in another La Nina year…
Anyway, I kind of got my attention. There are two snow totals which are awful for snow lovers and 2 more which make snow lovers happy… and sort of 3rd too I guess. So really inconclusive for a connection with us… I just figured I would do the exercise though.
The main photo is from Kathy Hinkle heading towards Frisco Lake. Nice day for a paddle (maybe not so much today though)
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